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Prediction for CME (2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-18T09:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45144/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME first seen to the SE by STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-18T09:23Z, as well as to the West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M2.7 flare from Active Region 4392 (S16W05) which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z. This flare could be seen in GOES SUVI 131, along with dimming and field line opening seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The dimming feature appears to propagate towards the Northwest, suggesting possible deflection. | Arrival information: Sharp increase in B_total from already elevated ~20 nT (following the IPS at L1 as detected by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-20T01:31Z) to ~36 nT. This arrival signature also includes sudden increase in solar wind speed from 450 to 550 km/s, in ion temperature from 20k to over 800k and in ion density from the already elevated 19 particles/cc to over 55 particles/cc. The shock seems to be followed by a flux rope starting at ~2026-03-21T02:18Z, with smoother rotation of magnetic field components and a drop in ion temperature and density. This arrival signature is associated with the arrival of CME 2026-03-18T09:23Z, simulated with an expected arrival at Missions Near Earth at 2026-03-20T17:24Z (+- 7 hours). Starting around 2026-03-21T11:45Z, there is an observed slow and smooth rise in B_total up to a peak of ~38.97nT at 2026-03-21T15:32Z with rotation in the magnetic field components, B_z largely northward. A further drop here in density alongside minimal change in solar wind speed and temperature indicate a likely merged second structure within this arrival, of which no current CME candidate exists following further analysis. A reverse shock is observed at 2026-03-21T19:10Z returning B_total to elevated background levels, prior to the separate start of coronal hole high speed stream with ID 2026-03-21T19:13:00-HSS-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T20:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-21T10:58Z (-6.44h, +7.69h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

*** CCOR1 ***
Time of Launch: 2026/03/18 09:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:00Z; 20Rsun; Halo Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:00Z; 20Rsun; Halo Direction
POS Difference: 00:00
POS Midpoint: 15:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.99
Travel Time: ~12.99 * 5:40 = 73:38

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-03-21T10:58Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 75%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/03/18 22:45Z

Lead Time: 45.52 hour(s)
Difference: -14.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-03-18T22:46Z

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